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Research

The Local Reaction to Unauthorized Mexican Migration to the US

Abstract: We study the political and socioeconomic impacts of unauthorized Mexican migration to the United States. Our identification strategy relies on two shift-share instruments that combine variation in migration inflows and migrant networks using novel data from 7.4 million likely unauthorized migrants who obtained Mexican consular IDs. We document conservative electoral and policy responses at the level of a US county. Recent unauthorized migration increases the vote share of the Republican Party in federal elections. It decreases total public expenditure, prompting reallocation shifts from education to policing and the administration of justice. Three mechanisms partially explain these effects: economic grievance, reflected in formal job losses in “migrantintensive” sectors and an associated marginal increase in poverty; White flight and residential sorting; and higher out-group bias. Migration inflows have no discernible impact on average wages, unemployment, or crime. Correlational evidence suggests the effects are smaller in counties with more progressive taxation or a stronger social safety net. These policy levers may facilitate job switching and prevent out-group bias.

Working Paper

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